The 9th edition, titled ASEAN Energy Outlook 2026-2060, examines how ASEAN can meet its growing energy needs while maintaining affordability, reliability, energy security, and progressively lower emissions through 2060. Based on harmonised historical data covering 2005-2024, AEO9 provides long-term energy-system projections across all 11 ASEAN Member States, covering energy demand, supply, power generation, fuel trade, technology deployment, and energy-related emissions.
AEO9 compares three conditional scenarios to assess how different policy directions and implementation approaches could shape ASEAN’s energy future. The Baseline Scenario (BAS) extends current trends and implementation patterns, while the AMS Target Scenario (ATS) reflects the stated policies, regulations, and targets of ASEAN Member States. The ASEAN Coordinated Transition Scenario (ACTS) explores a pathway towards a more secure, connected, and inclusive energy system through stronger regional coordination, energy efficiency, electrification, accelerated technology deployment, and clean-energy investment. These scenarios are analytical pathways rather than predictions of a single future.
AEO9 highlights the potential for ASEAN to meet its growing energy needs with substantially less energy through efficiency improvements, electrification, and fuel switching. By 2060, total final energy consumption under ACTS is projected at 1,073 Mtoe, compared with 1,482 Mtoe under ATS and 2,047 Mtoe under BAS. ACTS also projects a more diversified primary energy supply, with bioenergy, solar, geothermal, wind, hydropower, and other sources together supplying roughly half of primary energy by 2060.
Beyond energy demand and supply projections, AEO9 examines the wider challenges of ASEAN’s energy transition, including energy security and oil dependence, renewable energy deployment constraints, power-system integration, industrial and transport decarbonisation, employment, economic implications, and transition financing. The Outlook also provides policy recommendations covering energy efficiency, transport fuel economy, fossil-fuel plant retirement, grid expansion, flexibility, sustainable bioenergy, industrial investment, blended finance, and energy-system resilience.
