The 7th edition of ASEAN Energy Outlook reports the latest status of ASEAN’s energy landscape. It also projects multiple realistic futures to gather insights for exploring a more challenging time ahead. Using historical data from 2005 to 2020, the report forecasts the ASEAN energy system until 2050. As with its predecessors, AEO7 complements the ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation (APAEC) 2016–2025 Phase II: 2021–2025, creating pathways toward achieving regional energy targets. Following the previous edition, three central scenarios are continued: the Baseline Scenario, AMS (National) Targets Scenario (ATS), and the APAEC (Regional) Targets Scenario (APS).
AEO7 introduces a new scenario based on optimisation. The Least-Cost Optimisation (LCO) Scenario is a technology-neutral optimisation applied to the power sector. It reflects all potentially viable technologies in emerging economies, such as ASEAN. This scenario considers the cost-effectiveness, affordability, and technology maturity to fulfil the growing electricity demand. It also includes the deployment of energy storage and interconnection.
The LCO Scenario sheds light on a cost-effective alternate future, post-2025. An electricity generation system that costs USD 174.7 billion less than the APS can be realised during the projection period of 2021-2050. The cost-effective system in the LCO Scenario, though, will reduce the RE share in TPES by 5.3% in 2050, compared to APS. Interestingly, it results in a more energy-efficient system. The outlook projects the energy intensity reduction to be 3.5% higher than the APS by 2050.
AEO7 also explores socio-economic impacts in ASEAN, including the social cost of energy, renewable job creation, and biofuel land use. Furthermore, this energy outlook report elaborates on six essential energy sectors to attain a secure and reliable energy transition. The six thematic insights cover Grid Integration, Fossil Fuels, Industrial Efficiency, Renewable Energy, Finance, and Nuclear Power.
AEO7 offers key energy policy proposals and strategic steps to address barriers in utilising resources to meet the demand from end-use and power sectors. It aligns the recommendations with the regional targets. In conjunction with institutional and data improvement, the report also suggests model enhancement prospects for the subsequent editions of the ASEAN Energy Outlook.