Research Database

This study emphasizes the need for ASEAN countries to decarbonize their power sector, suggesting a mix of strategies including switching from coal to gas, implementing carbon capture and storage (CCS) in fossil fuel plants, and further utilizing renewable sources like hydropower, biomass, solar photovoltaic (PV), wind, and geothermal, while addressing sustainability and technological challenges to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.

The paper assesses ten decarbonization technologies for the ASEAN power sector, emphasizing the need for simultaneous use of fossil and non-fossil technologies. It highlights the potential of switching from coal to gas and implementing carbon capture and storage (CCS) for high decarbonization, proposing eleven first-mover CCS projects. Renewable options, such as hydropower and biomass, are considered, with solar photovoltaic showing medium potential. Wind energy needs further research, and geothermal resources are underutilized in Indonesia and the Philippines, requiring supportive government policies. The paper offers recommendations for rapid decarbonization in the ASEAN power sector.

The objective of this study is to select the technologies that have the highest potential to decarbonize the power sector of the ten countries of ASEAN and then draw policy implications.

The power sector is one of the major contributors to global greenhouse gas emissions while also being vulnerable to climate change in its own right. Accordingly, the global power sector needs to accelerate decarbonization. This paper assesses power sector pathways to net-zero emissions by 2050 for the Association of Southeast Asia Nations (ASEAN) using the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP). In addition to simulating a net-zero emissions scenario, the paper builds reference and renewable policy scenarios, enabling an analysis of additional measures required beyond the business as usual and current policy trajectories to achieve net-zero emissions. The LEAP simulation results indicate that under the net-zero emissions scenario, ASEAN member states need to swiftly capitalize on their currently underutilized renewable energy potential to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. By then, there will have to be a substantial transformation of the technological portfolio with variable renewable energy and energy storage coming to play central roles. The LEAP simulations also indicate that renewable and energy storage technologies are more cost-competitive than carbon capture and storage for achieving the long-term net-zero emissions goal. In the LEAP modeling, GHG emissions rise until they peak in 2029, then gradually decline until reaching zero by 2050. Meanwhile, the emission abatement cost is 16 USD/ton CO2e in the renewable policy scenario and 12 USD/CO2e in the net-zero emissions scenario.

As both China and India are moving away from coal in the power sector, Southeast Asia has emerged as arguably the most important region for future growth in coal-fired power generation. Here we use data from the January 2017 edition of the Global Coal Plant Tracker to understand coal’s fortunes in the region. More specifically, we manipulate three key policy levers – attrition rate, capacity factor, and plant lifespan – to provide a timely update on the future of coal in Southeast Asia. Using improved estimates of the attrition rate for planned power plants and capacity factors in different countries, we find that status-quo trends in Southeast Asian coal-fired power generation would significantly hamper the region’s ability to contribute to global efforts to limit warming to 1.5 or 2.0 degrees Celsius in line with international agreements, namely the 2009 Copenhagen and 2016 Paris Agreements. Though meeting these targets may be possible if policymakers limit the entry into service of new coal power capacity and reduce use of existing units, qualitative evidence suggests that there may be a lack of political will to do so.