COP Adoption, Implications and Projections...
Author: (a) adeel ahmed, (b) Abul Quasem Al-Amin and more
Climate Change is a critical concern for Southeast Asia as this region is extremely vulnerable to the extreme weather patterns,
temperature fluctuations and uneven precipitation expected under climate change, and thus vulnerability is expected to increase in the
future. With this background, this study aims to analyze the readiness of ASEAN member countries to undertake the promised
determinants of INDCs by the Paris Agreement and transfer these into measurable actions, and also to explore how ASEAN nations
may reduce climatic threats over time. Consequently, a long run RICE (Regional Integrated Climate and Economy) based dynamic nonlinear numerical model for the economy and environment was utilised. Simulation forecasts investigated several alternatives in order
to determine optimal climate strategies against global-warming in the region, using both an Optimal Scenario (OS) and Business-asusual (BAU) projections from 2020 to 2060. The results indicate that under an optimal scenario, industrial emissions are estimated in
monetary values, RM14.05 (US$1=RM4.30)(btCO2 per year) in 2040 and RM31.99 (btCO2 per year) by 2060. These estimated values
under OS are striking for sustainable development since they are far lower than BAU projections. Carbon price (RM per tCO2) by OS
indicates that the carbon tax could be RM224.65 in 2040, RM258.16 in 2050 and RM245.41 in 2060 per tCO2. The collected carbon
tax can be reinvested by ASEAN nations in order to implement alternative backstop technologies and technological innovation. The
optimal scenario outcomes examined for carbon emission reduction are tempting since they can support a strong balance between
sustainable development and quality environment. Despite long-run economic assumptions, the findings are still a worthy means by
which ASEAN governments can compare climate change mitigation strategies while also making amendments for any unexpected
developments.
Publisher
Research Square
ASEAN
June 2021