On 17 January 2025, the ASEAN Climate Change and Energy Project (ACCEPT) Phase II had the opportunity to be a guest speaker at the 3^rd École supérieure des sciences commerciales d’Angers (ESCCA) Opening Conference titled “Advancing Green and Resilient Economies in a Polarized World”. Indira Pradnyaswari, Research Analyst of ACCEPT II, represented the project to discuss “Green Transition in the Energy Sector in ASEAN”, alongside other speakers which included Dr Peter Hefele, Policy Director at Willfriend Marten Centre for European Studies, Prof Adel Ben Youssef, Associate Professor at University Cote d’Azur, and Ira Feldman, Founder & Board Chair of Adaptation Leader.

Indira kicked off her session by giving a brief introduction to the ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation (APAEC) as ASEAN’s regional energy blueprint. As the current APAEC cycle (20216-2025) is approaching its conclusion, ASEAN is in the process of developing its next cycle with enhanced focus on “Just and Inclusive Energy Transition” that is underscored in its new theme and acknowledged by all ASEAN Member States (AMS) during the 42^nd ASEAN Ministers on Energy Meeting (42^nd AMEM) in Vientiane, Lao PDR. This addition will further highlight decarbonisation and climate change into regional energy sectors starting this year as well as marking the beginning of low emission future in ASEAN.

Indira then introduced the 8^th ASEAN Energy Outlook (AEO8), a flagship publication produced by the ASEAN Centre of Energy with ACCEPT’s involvement, that provides insights and data into ASEAN’s energy landscape, including four projected scenarios of ASEAN’s energy transition up to 2050. The document holds an important role in supporting the next cycle of APAEC through several energy related scenarios that. One of those scenarios is the Carbon Neutrality Scenario (CNS), which highlights the importance of low carbon technologies to support AMS in achieving a net zero future. Indira explained that CNS examines potential low carbon technologies to be optimised in ASEAN for achieving a net zero future by 2050. In the demand side, she noted that ASEAN will experience a significant rise of energy demand, which will almost tripled by 2050 compared to 2022. On the other hand, the supply side observes a reduction in electricity generation due to increased adoption energy efficiency.

Within this, CNS assess and projects how many GHG emissions can be reduced. Results from the projection reveal three main findings, which are:

• By 2050, renewable energy will be the primary source of energy in ASEAN, taking up 90.9% of ASEAN’s total power generation.
• By 2050, RE will skyrocket to 70.2%, with technology advancement being pivotal to elevate regional RE share.
• Low carbon technology implementation will be prioritised, which is associated with capital-intensive projects. Hence, high investments will be required, with approximately USD 516 billion needed to achieve a carbon neutral future by 2050.

Aside from the AEO8, Indira noted that ASEAN has also recognised the importance of having regional strategies that enhance green transition to achieve net zero. This is translated in the adoption of the ASEAN Strategy for Carbon Neutrality, which has been recognised by all AMS. The document identifies eight (8) regional strategies, in which seven (7) of those are linked to the energy sector, further proving the pivotal role of its involvement in climate mitigation. It aims to accelerate an inclusive transition to a green economy by fostering sustainable growth, complementing national initiatives, and supporting a regional collective effort to help AMS identify decarbonisation solutions, address key challenges, and chart pathways to achieve net zero. Indira also underlined that as ASEAN’s GHG emissions are mainly contributed from the power, transport, and industrial sectors. As such, the strategy not only mentions the importance of achieving carbon neutrality but also emphasises the critical role of the energy sector in addressing climate change.

While documents such as the AEO8 and ASEAN Strategy for Carbon Neutrality may guide ASEAN’s path towards net zero, addressing the challenge of reducing greenhouse gas emissions will require calumnious collaborative efforts from all AMS. Hence, in elaborating on this, Indira explained that each AMS has set their own carbon neutral targets by 2050 through their respective Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) documents (aside from the Philippines). On the other hand, initiatives like the ASEAN Power Grid further assist low-carbon energy security by enhancing regional interconnectivity through integrating electricity across the region.

Moreover, Indira emphasised that various ASEAN national oil companies are also taking part in the advancement of clean energy, with Indonesian company PERTAMINA at the forefront alongside Brunei Shell Petroleum (Brunei Darussalam), PETRONAS (Malaysia), Philippine National Oil Company (the Philippines), PTT (Indonesia), and PetroVietnam (Vietnam). These companies are actively developing green transition initiatives such as Carbon Capture, Utilisation, and Storage (CCUS), clean hydrogen, RE technologies, and electric vehicles.

During the Q&A session, Indira commented on the role of geopolitics in influencing the decision-making progress of ASEAN’s green transition. For ASEAN’s case, she noted that the region has acknowledged the importance of geopolitics in determining green transition policies. Priorities that influence these policies are decided through the annual ASEAN Ministers on Energy Meeting (AMEM), covering various aspects such as urgent matters, technologies, and more. In ASEAN’s geopolitics itself, Indira noted that the region maintains active coordination between ministries in related sectors to ensure harmonisation between member states.

To summarise the presentation, Indira underlined how energy security continues to become a priority in ASEAN’s energy landscape amidst green transition towards long-term sustainability. Looking ahead, ACCEPT will continue to be a part of this journey by driving capacity building, policy advocation, and knowledge exchange in ASEAN’s energy-climate nexus.

(AZD) 

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