Safeguarding macro-financial stability under carbon pricing and rapid energy transition

Author(s)

Luca E. Fierro, Severin Reissl, Francesco Lamperti, Emanuele Campiglio, Laurent Drouet, Johannes Emmerling, Elise Kremer, Massimo Tavoni

Country(ies)

Publisher

Published Date

April 2026

Access

Open

DOI

https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03209-4
Affiliation
  1. Institute of Economics, Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy
  2. International Institute for Applied System Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
  3. CMCC Foundation—Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Lecce, Italy
  4. RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment, Milan, Italy
  5. EMbeDS, Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy
  6. University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
  7. LSE Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London, UK
  8. CENSE – Center for Environmental and Sustainability Research & CHANGE – Global Change and Sustainability Institute, NOVA School of Science and Technology, NOVA University Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal
  9. Politecnico di Milano, Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering, Milan, Italy

Abstract

Although the case for a swift climate transition is clear, its macro-financial viability remains uncertain. To shed light on the macroeconomic and financial response to deep mitigation trajectories controlled by carbon pricing, we soft-link a process-based integrated assessment model (the World Induced Technical Change Hybrid, WITCH) to a macro-financial agent-based model (the Dystopian Schumpeter Meeting Keynes, DSK). The hybrid framework allows us to translate energy systems transformations into macro-financial outcomes at business cycle frequency. We find that rapid transitions induced by fast-growing carbon prices significantly impact unemployment, inflation, and income distribution. Stabilization policies reduce these economic fluctuations, though not completely so in Paris-compatible scenarios. Our paper emphasizes the need for coordinated climate and macroeconomic policy during decarbonization. Additionally, it showcases how model integration can lead to a better understanding of the economic implications of low-carbon futures.

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