The future of coal-fired power generation in Southeast Asia
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Richard Clark (a), Noah Zucker (b), Johannes Urpelainen (c)
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(a) Columbia University, 420 W 118th St, Room 710, Mail Code 3320, NY, 10027, United States
(b) Johns Hopkins SAIS, 1619 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Office 428, WA, DC, 20036, United States
As both China and India are moving away from coal in the power sector, Southeast Asia has emerged as arguably the most important region for future growth in coal-fired power generation. Here we use data from the January 2017 edition of the Global Coal Plant Tracker to understand coal’s fortunes in the region. More specifically, we manipulate three key policy levers – attrition rate, capacity factor, and plant lifespan – to provide a timely update on the future of coal in Southeast Asia. Using improved estimates of the attrition rate for planned power plants and capacity factors in different countries, we find that status-quo trends in Southeast Asian coal-fired power generation would significantly hamper the region’s ability to contribute to global efforts to limit warming to 1.5 or 2.0 degrees Celsius in line with international agreements, namely the 2009 Copenhagen and 2016 Paris Agreements. Though meeting these targets may be possible if policymakers limit the entry into service of new coal power capacity and reduce use of existing units, qualitative evidence suggests that there may be a lack of political will to do so.
Cite
Clark, Richard., Zucker, Noah., Urpelainen, Johannes., 2020. The future of coal-fired power generation in Southeast Asia. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Volume 121, 109650.
