ARNECC Paper Talks 2.0 – Net Zero #6: Rethinking Energy Security in Indonesia from a Net Zero Perspective

Online, 25 April 2024

The Paris Agreement set a clear pathway in tackling global warming, whereby the target for all nation to reduce the temperature to 1.5-degree Celsius based on the current business-as-usual (BAU). Meanwhile, Indonesia and other top ten emitters are accountable of the two-thirds of the global emissions. Indonesia has expressed the commitment to achieve the net zero emissions by 2060 and committed to the conditional National Determined Contributions of 41% and unconditional at 29%.  

Photo 1. Panel from Energy Justice Indonesia, Ayu Pratiwi Muyasyaroh together with moderator, Zahrah Zafira, and emcee Shahnaz Namira Fairuza,

ASEAN Climate Change and Energy Project (ACCEPT) Phase II brings a recent publication, “Rethinking Energy Security in Indonesia from a Net Zero Perspective” authored by our speaker Ayu Pratiwi Muyasyaroh from Energy Justice Indonesia. on the sixth episode of ARNECC Paper Talks, moderated by Zahrah Zafira from the ASEAN Centre for Energy and emceed by Shahnaz Namira Fairuza, Research Assistant in ACCEPT II. The study assessed the current energy market and explored the Indonesia’s capability to safeguard its energy security using the net-zero framework. It is vital to assess the Indonesia’s energy landscape since the nation is heavily relying on fossil fuels, creating an urgency to identify potential hindrances in striving the net-zero emission.  

Photo 2. The findings on the primary energy mix in Indonesia based on the three scenarios; CurPol, NDC and Glasgow.

Ms. Ayu highlighted the Indonesia still require more law enforcement and financial support to accelerate energy efficiency and energy transition. Adding on, she expressed the Local Content Requirements (LCR) in renewable energy development is rigid, while the cost of electricity generated by renewable is less attractive compared to the coal subsidies. Three scenarios were assessed, namely, current policies (“CurPol”), National Determined Contributions (“NDC”) and both NDC and net zero emissions pledge during the COP26 in Glasgow (“Glasgow”). In the parameter of current policies, the result show coal and gas without complementing technology such as carbon capture utilisation and storage (CCUS) remain as the primary energy mix in Indonesia. In contrast with NDC and Glasgow scenario whereby the share of biomass in primary energy mix will rise significantly followed by the gas coupled with the CCUS technology. However, the study admits the portion of fossil fuel in the primary energy still available in the picture and estimated to be decline from 2050 onwards.  

Photo 3. Presentation by Ms. Ayu Pratiwi Muyasyaroh on the result of total emissions of Kyoto gases and the sectoral emissions of CO2. 

The Glasgow scenario showcase the reduction from energy and industrial sector while the NDC scenario reflect on the emissions-based agriculture, forestry and land of use, energy and industrial sector. The result shown the inclusive of NDC scenario considering the wider sectors in addressing the emissions, yet Indonesia still emits CO2 differ from the Glasgow scenario, whereby the net-zero seems achievable. Ms. Ayu concluded her presentation by highlighted four strategies whereby Indonesia should pair fossil fuels with technologies in phasing down instead of completely phase out and increase the share of renewable energy. She also admits the social context whereby energy poverty still exists in Indonesia’s system besides call-for-action towards various stakeholders aggressively expedite the nation’s aspiration in striving the net-zero target.  

During the discussion session, Ms. Ayu mentioned that key-lesson learnt from the study conducted are the need to incorporate technology and assessing the socioeconomics and uncertainties. She expressed the reality in Indonesia whereby there is inadequacy regulations and therefore, policymakers need to look into strengthening both economy and sectoral level. Another interesting point made by Ms. Ayu is adding new policy may cause sporadic regime and adding more burden to status quo. A question raised by the audience on the challenge of scenario modelling, which does not take into account the pace of technology innovation and adoption rate and she conferred the scenario modelling is a tool to enable the researcher to forecast and predict of the outcome and use as guideline to make decisions based on the outcome. She expressed the uniqueness in Indonesia whereby the approach is narrow disperse and therefore, it requires willingness and continuous effort in addressing the issue. She also emphasised the need to set the priorities as energy poverty is prominent in Indonesia. Hence, it is essential to provide the people with access to the electricity and later progress to clean technology.  

Concluding the session, Ms. Ayu underscored that in achieving net-zero targets, it requires continuous efforts and confirms that Indonesia is moving towards the direction and making progress.  


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